Melbourne Cup Countdown - 29 Days to Go!

The weekend's racing saw a new Melbourne Cup favourite installed after Tawqeet put in a blinder of a performance to take out the Metropolitan Handicap in Sydney on Saturday. It's now the new 7/1 favourite for the big 2 mile event run on the first Tuesday in November. Headturner and Railings put in moderate efforts and slipped a fraction in the betting, with Spenophyta firming into equal second favourite after winning the Turnbull stakes.

Now just so that you can all go to the pub or sit around the lunch table at the office and sound like you know what you're talking about, here's how I see the Cup at this stage (in Market order up to 20/1)...

Tawqeet 7/1.
English handicapper now trained permanently in Oz by David Hayes. Should get the distance easily and a deserved favourite at this stage although I'm not a big wrap on the Metropolitan as a form guide. 1kg penalty for winning on Saturday too...

Headturner 8/1.
Keeps promising to show something but his heads on the chopping block now. The short odds are based on promise and apart from winning the Derby as a three year old, has to step up. He's under the odds for me..

Sphenophyta 8/1.
Won big time on him on Saturday when he was my best bet for the day, but the Flemington two miler may be a bit different. I'd rather be backing him in the Caulfield Cup...

Yeats 9/1.
Best stayer in Europe but still to get here and an obvious risk. He'll run first up in Australia in the Cup so I'll let him run without me.

Activation 11/1.
Good run when second in the Metropolitan, but not one of my favourites.

Our Smoking Joe 11/1.
If it's wet on the big day-YES. If it's not-NO.

Railings 11/1.
Need to do more to get me in. Another one a bit short in the market going on promise.

Zipping 12/1.
He's the BIG CHANCE and the one you should be on now. A proven stayer and a super run when flashing home on Saturday.

On A Jeune 14/1.
Second last year and a one paced stayer who may have had his chance. Finished a close up fifth on Saturday in an average race and he'll be finishing the race off over two mile though..

Serenade Rose 16/1.
Good run to dead heat for third in the Turnbull. A quality galloper who's raced without luck recently but she's always a chance in anything she contests.

Further out in the market is Pop Rock at 25/1 who has won his last four starts in Japan over staying journeys which includes a last start win over Eye Popper who we saw here last year. My old mate Dizelle is at 40/1, and I've backed her to win Karen a big fat juicy diamond! So for me as of today, it's Zipping and Dizelle..

- Peter Morley