Here's Why Pace is so Crucial

Many times, the excuse for a horse getting beaten is because of a lack of, or too much, early speed in a race. There's no doubt amongst professional race watchers that the pace of a race is absolutely crucial to the eventual outcome. Randwick clocker Craig Thompson explained it well by using this hypothetical scenario...

"If former champion Australian marathon runner Rob De Castella was to meet champion sprinter Carl Lewis in a race over the marathon distance of 42kms, all things equal De Castella would be at unbackable odds. But what if you knew that the two combatants were going to walk the first 41.8kms and then sprint the last 200m? No way would De Castella be able to match the sprint of Carl Lewis. This is what happened last Saturday with Cateclipse. When Cateclipse was able to “walk” the first 600m of the race, he looked very strong at the end of the 1600m. But with a different early pace scenario, in another 1600m race he will fail, simple as that."

Quite often you'll see two horses "cut each other's throat" out in front, each desperate to claim the early lead. Invariably, both horses use up too much energy too early, and have nothing left for the finish. This enables horses coming from further back in the field to catch them, and look like they're finishing well.
Happens all the time.

- Peter Morley